We’ve all heard it said that women’s voting can determine a presidential election, whether it’s Black women, white women, Latina women, suburban women, working women—you name it. That’s because women make up the largest percentage of registered voters in the United States. Typically, there are 10 million more women registered to vote than men, and we also turn out to vote in the highest numbers. There’s no question that the way we vote can determine whether a candidate wins or loses.
Case in point: When Joe Biden won the 2020 election, Black women were rightly praised for making the difference. When Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016, white women were damned by the left, praised by the right, and duly credited by Trump himself. And it was women as a whole, particularly single women, who turned out in unprecedented numbers to give Barack Obama two terms in the 2008 and 2012 elections. That’s a heavy responsibility for each of us and all of us.
And when our votes carry so much power, the weight of our options can be hard to handle—as individuals and together. Our voting behavior is put under a microscope. Politicians tailor their campaigns to our needs. We’re told we can save or ruin democracy; protect or destroy family values—all while being made to feel guilty for our decisions, whether we’re Republicans or Democrats. Our political identity becomes a point of intense scrutiny.
Yet something isn’t quite right when it comes to the group that’s allowed so many politicians to stay in power and office for so long. Few legislative advances have been made for problems that disproportionately affect women. The United States remains one of six countries in the world that lack a national paid family and medical leave program. Childcare costs are still unaffordable and childcare workers remain unprotected. The disparity between men and women’s earnings in every field continues to exists—yet women represent 47% of the American workforce. This many will feel wretched when, as now, the cost of goods, services and housing is on the rise. Federal Reserve Bank data shows that American households now have the highest levels of debt ever recorded. At the same time, women continue to be underrepresented in politics. Just four women had served in the U.S. Senate from 1965 to 1991, accounting for about 2% of senators. And in 2001, the figure only reached 12%. Even this year, when the first woman president of the United States could be elected, only a quarter of our federal legislators are women. So, in association with YouGov, we conducted a major national representative poll with the goal of understanding the views of women voters across the U.S. — what party they plan to vote for; what issues matter to them; who best trusts them with key issues; and what issues they consider most important for women right now. And with the results available in the run-up to Election Day, it will be a tale of what both political parties are up against, the potentially dangerous supposition that women think and behave alike, and the shifting role of women in American society–an evolution that may significantly affect their voting, especially for those with traditional values.
HOW WOMEN LEAN:
t’s a surprisingly close race. Of the 73% of women who said they’re registered and voting this year, 53% are Democrats and 47% are Republicans.
While there aren’t comparable YouGov polls around women’s voting intentions before previous elections, it is fascinating to see how women described their actual voting after the fact. In the Trump run, the spilt was 56/44 when Obama won it was 57/43 (if Marie Kondo were advising political analysts about throwing out data, that 44 result from 2008 would be first in line). But in 2016, when Trump won, women split 52%-43% in favour of the Democrats, with 5% saying “other” or “not sure.”
Let’s dig more into the Saver Junction-YouGov data from this year, though. While among 18-29s and 30-49s support for the Democrats is notably stronger, it’s not markedly different: 60/40. But only 56% of women aged 18 to 29 say they are registered to vote this year, by far the lowest of any age group. In the 30-49 age bracket it’s 68%.
In contrast, 91% of 65-year-olds and over are registered, and lean 57%-42% towards Pres. Trump – that’s a healthy Republican advantage.
Demographically, white women lean Republicans (55/45), Hispanic women Democrat 58/42 but an astonishing 88% of registered black women voters go Democrat—a pattern which has been insulating Democrat Presidential run candidates from disaster for decades.
Women with a high school education or less are the only group where Republicans lead, with 57% to the Dems’ 42%.
ISSUES OF IMPORTANCE
The top three issues for women in this election are the economy, healthcare and the cost of housing.
Qualitatively, and backed up by the poll to a remarkable degree, women talked about the economy as it affected them: what they lost, what they could and couldn’t buy. This was often presented to us in terms of things like paid leave and affordable childcare. Similarly, healthcare was seen through the lens of prescription costs, but the Black maternal health crisis came up a lot.
“Women are still at a significant disadvantage in professional settings. In my field, it is much easier for a less qualified man to advance than for a more qualified woman. Further, both men and women need more support for families. There should be mandatory, government-subsidized leave and government-supported childcare.” —a Democrat from Illinois
“Childcare costs need to be capped because the rates are exorbitant, which means the mother either can’t work or must work more, in which case she’s unable to spend time with and nurture her child.” —a Republican from Georgia
“Women should be making the same salary as men doing the same type of work.” —a Democrat from Illinois
“Give more tax breaks to families, which would put more money in their pocket so the mom wouldn’t have to work full-time.” —a Republican from Tennessee
“We need affordable housing, affordable healthcare, affordable childcare, access to abortion, mental healthcare, equal pay, more representation in all institutions.” —a Democrat from Michigan
“Women, particularly Black and minority women, remain undertreated and mistreated in healthcare. They are more likely to die in childbirth. The wage gap continues to affect women.” —a Democrat from Ohio
While women are largely united on the top two issues, breaking it down along party lines in our poll reveals other concerns. For Democratic women, two additional key issues are gun policy and abortion. For Republican women, it’s criminal justice and foreign policy. Some women who lean independent also highlighted the debate over transgender athletes in sports.
“Removing our rights as far as abortion is not acceptable. We have a right to healthcare. We have the right to make the choice whether we want to carry a baby or not.” —a Democrat from Wisconsin
“Not all women want abortion to be freely available and legal. Women want to be able to own guns if they qualify but don’t want their abusers to be able to buy them.” —a Republican from Michigan
“Healthcare needs to be accessible for everyone, guns need to be controlled, inflation needs to go down, the wealthy need to be taxed.” —an undecided voter from California
“I am now 72 and have no need of reproductive health services. However, I have two granddaughters who now have less right to bodily autonomy than I did, and that is simply wrong! Stop hating LGBTQ+ people, immigrants, people of color, and anyone who looks, loves, or thinks differently from you! Stop mass shootings by banning military-style guns!! And for God’s sake—stop banning books.” —a Democrat from North Carolina
“Biological women are different from biological men physically but should be treated equally intellectually. Sports should be in a separate category due to males being stronger physically than women.” —an independent from Hawaii
WOMEN IDENTITIES:
One of the most surprising things we researched in the Saver Junction-YouGov poll was determining how women refer to themselves and, conversely, whether these identities informed their stands in the current politics. The latter approach revealed that 71% of women identified themselves as open-minded, which denotes their flexibility, adaptability and open mindedness to numerous life situations. Such an identity cuts across ideological and religious convictions, as 62% of evangelical Christians and 68% of Catholics referred to their personality as open. In addition, these women will consider crucial the perspectives on abortion, paid leave, and gun policy, among other issues, in the forthcoming election. As for the rest of the most essential womanly identifiers, they are the following:
Traditional (48% overall): 53% of Republican; 28% of Democrat.
Caregiver (42% overall): Republican, 38%; Democrat, 42%.
Conservative (33% overall): Republican, 69%; Democrat, 15%.
Ambitious (32% overall): Republican, 34%; Democrat, 44%.
Progressive (27% overall): Republican, 14%; Democrat, 73%.
Feminist (22% overall): Republican, 8%; Democrat, 79%.
Breadwinner (19% overall): Republican, 33%; Democrat, 44%.
Consequently, all these identifiers at least outline the scope of women’s positions as filled with internal contradictions which are not necessarily mutually excluding the other. The reason is that drawing on the current data, it is possible to observe that equal numbers of female representatives with opposing views perceive themselves as breadwinners and caregivers. It contributes to shaping the overall idea of the electorate’s diversity and dynamism.
ABORTION AND GUN CONTROL: THE STEREOTYPING MISTAKE
One of the primary purposes of examining the Gallup-YouGov poll data through multiple lenses, e.g., partisan, socioeconomic, racial, and so on, is to avoid mischaracterizing the nature of women’s perception of the given subject. There is a strong possibility that one might assume that women are more likely to be in agreement with the position of the party they belong to when it comes to such critical issues as abortion or weapon control. However, the present-day reality is far more complex than that. Abortion is one of the issues that is shaped by personal experience to a considerable extent. In the survey, 15% of women reported the need to use abortion services. Women with the first-hand experience of the procedure are 20 percentage points more likely to be in favor of making abortion legal under all circumstances and half as likely to believe that the procedure should be illegal in all instances. As of now, the data indicates that women are roughly split on the opinion, with 54 wanting to allow the procedure and 46 opposing it under most or all circumstances. One of the interesting findings is that 69% of Republican women are against the operation, and 31% are embracing it while 73% of the Democratic women are opposed, and 27% are in favor of it
Another issue, which is more complicated than it appears through the lenses of traditional left-right views, is the question of weapon control. Therefore, as for this issue, it seems that Democrats have a better chance of appealing to the other side since women predominantly want the gun laws to be more conservative in general. For instance, two in three Republican women and around 86% of the Democratic women are in agreement that the minimum age of purchasing the weapons should be increased to 21. Around 82% of all casted female votes are in agreement that people with mental disabilities should not be allowed to buy weapons. Around 71% say that weapon control is an essential aspect for them when casting the ballot, and around 78% of women surveyed support the ideas of banning assaulting weapons and weapons with high-capacity magazines. Therefore, the conclusion that around at least one of five women voters want a combination of traditionally left and right ideas banning abortion but enforcing stricter weapon control applies.
THE SUPPORT FOR PAID LEAVE
Paid family leave is one of America’s most unifying policies. It is also one of the only four countries in the world, with the United States being one of only six countries in the world without a national policy. Nonetheless, both the major political parties are divided from it—Democrats preferring a state-run program and Republicans are opposing another government-run initiative. Although this could be an asset for Republicans, it could also be a liability, as 83% of the women support paid family leave, whereas only 5% oppose it. Meanwhile, the issue also has significant emotional force, with nearly half the women returning to work six weeks after childbirth. This number rises to 56% for households earning less than $50,000 a year. To provide context, at six weeks postpartum, a woman goes in for her first postnatal check-up, while 12 weeks is the shortest recommended postnatal leave. These sharp numbers are in considerable contrast to states like the United Kingdom, where new mothers take an average period of 40 weeks of paid leave.
PARTY TRUST
We also asked the women which party they trust on different issues, and the responses offer lessons for each. When it comes to the economy, the Republicans seem to have a slight edge, with their emphasis on job creation and reducing inflation. On the other hand, the Democrats have a possible opportunity when it comes to issues of care on the lines of the successful campaign that Barack Obama launched on healthcare reform. For example, qualified figures like the vice president, Kamala Harris, have already pledged to push initiatives on paid leave, the cost of childcare, and reproductive rights.
WHERE THIS LEAVES WOMEN TODAY
In the context of this historic presidential election year—with the Democratic ticket suddenly led by Kamala Harris due to Joe Biden dropping out and the assassination attempt of Donald Trump, the Republican candidate—the attention could easily be focused on a series of spectacular precarious events. However, the data from our study offers a point in a vastly different direction: irrespective of political affiliation, women care deeply about the substantial issues. They care about the economy, health care, paid leave, abortion, housing costs, criminal justice, gun policy, and much more. They want the progress first and foremost, especially since the previous administrations have delivered little of it for the female population. One of the key election issues, abortion, is currently being debated ‘over the heads of women’. Still, our survey suggests that the views on these issues are vastly more diverse and often clash with each other among the women than the politicians seem to assume. It seems electorally risky to assume that all the Republican women would want abortion banned or gins made more broadly available or that the Democratic women would like the opposite.
The reality of the situation actually offers a lot more unity than might’ve been expected along the party lines, with most of the women voters seeking stricter gun control, considering themselves open-minded, and wanting the paid leave. Both parties still have immense opportunities to reach out to these electorates. But to do that, they have to demonstrate that they inspire trust on the vital issues of the election, mobilize the dormant younger demographics for the polls, and deliver the progress that the millions of women who continue to define the future shape of the nation are looking for.
